Trade Issues with Canada, Mexico, China Could Negatively Impact Vegas Housing Market

LAS VEGAS, NV – A potential trade war still brewing between the United States and Canada, Mexico, and China could have a negative impact upon the housing market – both in Las Vegas and nationwide – if it comes to fruition, real estate experts say.

President Trump had originally planned to implement 25 percent tariffs on goods imported from Canada and Mexico, along with a 10 percent tariff on Chinese imports, all of which were originally slated to begin on February 4. However, the tariffs against Canada and Mexico were placed on hold for 30 days after the two countries agreed to enter into discussions with the Trump Administration; the Chinese tariffs were not postponed, and went into effect on Tuesday as scheduled.

That said, experts say that the tariffs on China – and the ones on Canada and Mexico, if they eventually go into effect – could impact the U.S. housing market, with the costs of building materials expected to increase, and a subsequent and likely spike in inflation will cause mortgage rates to go further up.

Research Director of University of Nevada, Las Vegas’ Lied Center for Real Estate, Nicholas Irwin, said that it’s too early to tell what the overall effects of a trade war could be on the housing market, but it would probably have negative consequences given the slowdown issues it is currently facing due to high mortgage rates.

A wait-and-see approach is a good idea right now. I think also we could think better about the effect of tariffs on house prices if we were in a lower mortgage rate interest environment,” Irwin said. “If mortgage rates were 3 percent, then I would think a lot of these extra costs coming in for [building] materials would be passed on to homebuyers. But now with mortgage rates so high there is less ability to pass on the full costs, they might just have to absorb more of it. And it’s not just lumber from Canada, it’s cement, vinyl plank flooring from China, and all the other things that figure into that.”

However, Las Vegas mortgage advisor Matt Hennessy said that Trump’s initial announcement of tariffs had a noticeable positive impact upon the nation’s economy; but a prolonged trade war, if it comes to pass, would have the opposite effect.

Initially we are seeing a flight to quality as money flows out of the stock market and into bonds. Mortgage bonds and mortgage rates will be beneficiaries,” Hennessy said. “While the immediate impact may be perceived as good news for housing, it may be temporary. If inflation heats up as a result of tariffs, mortgage rates will rise. There are valid concerns surrounding the potential impact and renewed fears of an uptick in inflation as an unintended consequence by tariffs.”

Shelter Realty is a Real Estate and Property Management Company specializing in the areas of Henderson, Las Vegas and North Las Vegas, NV. Feel free to give us a call at 702.376.7379 so we can answer any questions you may have.